Global Thermonuclear War

Round IV

After the previous nuclear conflagrations, the bunnies have found another source of suppliers for their arsenals. The UN once more meets to battle this threat.

The List of players:

1Eevee1
darth_vader
Eugene Chin
GutlessWonder
kickme
Mispeled
mrxak
xander

PMs have been sent to everyone.

Each round will be two days, to allow for more time... and perhaps more betrayals.

How many dictators are there? How many other roles, and what are those roles?

xander

Sorry. There are two dictators and one intelligence agent, again, even with only 8 people. (Hey, it'll make this round go fast and maybe we'll get more people next time).

Haha, is everybody too scared to be first to point the finger?

Okay, I'll do it. I think it's

Spoiler

Eugene Chin that's an evil dictator, because he's new to the game and the host may be trying to give him a good first game with lots to do.

It may be a shot in the dark, but I feel it's the only thing we can go by so far.

This post has been edited by mrxak : 15 August 2007 - 01:13 AM
Reason for edit: changed vote

Random vote: Kickme (retracted)

This post has been edited by Mispeled : 16 August 2007 - 11:37 AM

Self defence vote: Mispeled

I've learnt what randomness can do, and I don't like it anymore. Except in maths at the moment.

And, being from New Zealand, I cannot have a nuclear arsenal as we are nuclear free.

Eh, what the heck. I change by vote to Mispeled. Say no to random!

I vote for... Mispeled. If I can't, then I vote for myself.

I generally distrust bandwagoning on the first day. There is nothing to go on, and no reason for it. Generally, I see no reason to vote for the first person to vote for the bandwagoned individual, as their vote is random. Also, there is often no reason to vote for the second person (though mrxak does strike me as suspicious). However, the third person to vote on a bandwagon, especially in a game this small, is often an evil dictator trying to blend in with the rest of the UN. Thus, 1Eevee1.

xander

My vote is hardly any less likely than mrxak's vote first vote. I'm obviously not trying to actually get someone lynched randomly, it's just to start some serious conversation. Since we've got 48 hours to make a decision, we should get as much discussion in as possible, hopefully to cause one of the mafia to slip up.

Another thing: if we don't lynch during either day 1 or day 2, we'll get an extra night for the intelligence agent to investigate.

@mispeled, on Aug 15 2007, 11:35 AM, said in Global Thermonuclear War:

My vote is hardly any less likely than mrxak's vote first vote. I'm obviously not trying to actually get someone lynched randomly, it's just to start some serious conversation. Since we've got 48 hours to make a decision, we should get as much discussion in as possible, hopefully to cause one of the mafia to slip up.
Another thing: if we don't lynch during either day 1 or day 2, we'll get an extra night for the intelligence agent to investigate.

I actually tried to make an educated guess, you just voted randomly. As for trying to avoid lynching somebody the first day, that just gives the evil dictators an advantage. The odds of an intelligence agent actually hitting an evil dictator is slim, and meanwhile they've killed off one of us. Is that what you really want, mister dictator?

@mrxak, on Aug 15 2007, 12:15 PM, said in Global Thermonuclear War:

As for trying to avoid lynching somebody the first day, that just gives the evil dictators an advantage. The odds of an intelligence agent actually hitting an evil dictator is slim, and meanwhile they've killed off one of us. Is that what you really want, mister dictator?

This is how the game would progress if we lynched one person each day, assuming no dictators are lynched. (Numbers being what is left at the end of that stage, after dictators kill or town lynches.)

D1: 5 towns / 2 dictators.
N1: 4 towns / 2 dictators.
D2: 3 towns / 2 dictators.
N2: 2 towns / 2 dictators.
D3: Town/Dictators tie when voting for a lynch. No one is lynched.
N3: 1 town / 2 dictators.
D4: Dictators lynch last town. Dictators win.

or, if we voted no lynch on D1:

D1: Town votes no lynch. 6 town / 2 dictator.
N1: 5 towns / 2 dictator.
D2: 4 towns / 2 dictator.
N2: 3 towns / 2 dictator.
D3: 2 towns / 2 dictators.
N3: 1 town / 2 dictators.
D4: Dictators lynch the last town. Dictators win.

In the first example, we only lynch someone on days 1 and 2. The intelligence agent gets to investigate nights 1, 2, and 3 but his investigation on nights 2 and 3 don't do any good since there isn't a lynch day 3, and on night 3 the town loses.

In the second example, we only lynch someone on days 2 and 3. The intelligence agent gets to investigate nights 1, 2, and 3. Investigation on N3 doesn't do any good since town loses on D4. Even then, the town gets an extra day for discussion.

As far as I can tell, there is no advantage to the dictators. The town gets an extra day for discussion and the intelligence agent now has two chances for investigation.

And it's not all that unlikely for the IA to hit a dictator. On the first night, if we don't lynch anyone during day 1, there will be 7 other people besides himself to choose from, so a 2 in 7 chance (28.57%) of hitting a dictator. On the second night, after a kill during night 1 and a lynch during day 2, there will be 5 people remaining, and if the person he already investigated is still alive, there is a 2 in 4 chance of hitting someone (50+28.57=78.57% chance over the two nights).

@darwinian, on Aug 15 2007, 10:09 AM, said in Global Thermonuclear War:

I generally distrust bandwagoning on the first day. There is nothing to go on, and no reason for it. Generally, I see no reason to vote for the first person to vote for the bandwagoned individual, as their vote is random. Also, there is often no reason to vote for the second person (though mrxak does strike me as suspicious). However, the third person to vote on a bandwagon, especially in a game this small, is often an evil dictator trying to blend in with the rest of the UN. Thus, 1Eevee1.

xander

I have no one I can trust, everyone is too suspicious. For the lack of any better reason, I shall also vote for 1Eevee1.

So I believe we're coming down to the last oh, 13 hours. Who still needs to vote?

darth_vader and Eugene Chin

Vote: No lynch

Read this post. Also, anyone care to remind me why I'm being voted for again, besides the fact that I started out by casting a random vote which I planned to change anyway?

I am going to vote for mrxak to be eliminated, for several reasons. First, I saw that he was the first to point the finger, with essentially zero evidence. This suggests to me that mrxak is a dictator who is eager to begin eliminating everybody else. Second, he quickly changed his vote to Mispeld made an (apparently) random accusation. This suggests that once he saw anyone with a stronger case against them than Eugene Chin, he immediately decided that the prospects of getting them eliminated were greater, so he put his nefarious plan into action, and sure enough it worked, causing people to bandwagon against Mispeld. I have no doubt that is someone made an error more grievous than Mispeld's, mrxak would vote for them. He is eager to get the rest of us to help him lynch someone. mrxak has acted in the most suspicious manner so far this round, so I suspect him.

@mispeled, on Aug 16 2007, 04:23 PM, said in Global Thermonuclear War:

Vote: No lynch

Read this post. Also, anyone care to remind me why I'm being voted for again, besides the fact that I started out by casting a random vote which I planned to change anyway?

If you are planning on abstaining, then you need to change your first vote -- unbold it, and add (retracted) to it. It makes it easier to count.

xander

:rolleyes:

I'd say that it was more suspicious for somebody to vote at the very last minute when there's no risk of people pointing the finger back at them. This game is about risk, those that take none probably have the most to lose. I'll keep my eye on you next round.

Until Eugene Chine votes, you all can still change your votes. If you really think it is me, you could change your vote to me. Also note that Eugene Chin has still not voted. If I really wanted no risk, I'd wait until he was done too, then I could jump on the bandwagon with the rest, or I could point the finger at him. I know that you are an experienced player, mrxak, and if I wanted no risk, I'd choose someone else, someone who I knew would defend themselves less effectively. I might pick on Eugene Chin, who has never played before, and who I once again note was your original choice. You said that you picked him because you though Mackilroy was trying to give him an interesting first game with a lot to do. Yet you know as well as I that trying to guess his motives is essentially pointless. You, in essence, did the same thing as Mispeld, but with a bit more nuance. This worked in your favor, as Mispeld soon made a more obvious error, allowing you to have cause to jump on him.

Another reason I waited was I wanted to see if an evil dictator would show themself. It seems one has.