Pers appear chance

The bible says that ships generated have a 5% chance to appear as a pers of the same ship.

Is this 5% per generated ship? Or 5% per pers with that ship type?

And is this only for non-mission dudes? Or does it include ships in fleets too?

Lastly, is there a way to make a pers appear with more regularity than 5%, or perhaps as a part of a fleet? Or make one appear as a part of a mission? (like a dude special ship)

It is 5% for each pers with the same name. So if you have 5 pers with the name 'Bob', it will make it a 25% chance to show in any system.

So if I have 20 'Bob' pers that uses ship 128, every time ship 128 appears in a dude it will be 'Bob' (assuming bob hasn't been killed yet)?

No, përses don't appear in düdes or flëts - they're completely different things.

Hmmm... I appear to have read the bible wrong.

Looking back, "When ships are created, there is a 5% chance that a specific AI-person will also be created."

That seems to suggest that there is only a 5% chance per system.
But Eegras seems to suggest that it's 5% per pers.

If I have 20 Identical 'Bob' pers that appear in (-1) any system, does this mean he will appear 100% of the time in 100% of the systems?

This post has been edited by Desprez : 22 August 2006 - 04:09 PM

When ships are created in a system there is a 95% chance that none will be a përs. I hope this clarifies the matter.

Par example , if your data files had 500 përs resources there'd be a 0.01% chance of a specific one showing up.

The Bible certainly says that it's 5% per përs, but I'm not too certain. Someone in the Nova board pointed out that if that were true, you'd run into CATS every twenty systems on average, when you actually don't see him very often at all.

You could always test it out and see what happens.

This post has been edited by Belthazar : 22 August 2006 - 04:18 PM

That makes sence.

So, by adding duplicate pers, I'm just increasing its chance to be randomy picked from the group, depending on how many pers resources are available. However, a random drawing is only going to happen 5% of the time for any given system.

Also, only one pers can appear at a time as a result of this random chance?

Given this, if I wanted to make a pers appear as a part of a misn with other ships, I'd have to enter him into the system resource as 100% chance to appear. Then only make him available by when a particular bit is set, and set that bit as a part of the mission, yes?

@qaanol, on Aug 23 2006, 07:16 AM, said in Pers appear chance:

When ships are created in a system there is a 95% chance that none will be a përs. I hope this clarifies the matter.

Yah, that's what I thought it should be. However, the Bible is quite clear on saying that it's a 5% chance for each specific përs. Is the Bible wrong? ... again?

From what I've read, I don't think so. Since its 5% for a any pers to show up in a system, and then for every pers resource 5%, it sort of adds up. So 5% of 5% for one pers resource to show up in any system, if thats the way the pers is set up. But you can always just enter in the pers RID into the system and set its probability.

@chronodrago, on Aug 23 2006, 03:29 AM, said in Pers appear chance:

From what I've read, I don't think so. Since its 5% for a any pers to show up in a system, and then for every pers resource 5%, it sort of adds up. So 5% of 5% for one pers resource to show up in any system, if thats the way the pers is set up. But you can always just enter in the pers RID into the system and set its probability.

So it's a mixture of both?

Geez this really needs testing...

@qaanol, on Aug 22 2006, 11:16 PM, said in Pers appear chance:

Par example

Exemple, mon cher, exemple.

Example en anglais, exemple en français

While the prerelease bible says something to the effect of "5% chance a specific person will appear" I'm almost completely certain the 1.0.A bible says "5% chance any person will appear." In either case, I've done "testing" that involved taking off and landing several hundred times and not seeing either Zero Wing or Shade of Blue at all. I used a 100% appear odds plug just to be sure those two were still alive for my pilot, and they were, but without the plug I saw nothing. Hence my thread on the Nova boards a few weeks back.

If it were 5% odds of a specific person appearing then after 7 tries there'd be better than a 50% chance of seeing one of the two, and after 29 tries better than a 95% chance. In fact, it only would take 44 tries to have a 99% chance. So, while I could be wrong, I'm not.

Thanks Pace.

Okay.. I'll try to clarify this. For each ship generated in a system(dependant on how many ships you set as average), there is a 5% chance that this ship will be a pers. Any pers. This can be altered within each systs seperately to have a specific pers spawn there more often.. like Iuso in the Tre'helipar syst. (I think that's the one, though, it doesn't matter, it's just an example) This also means that if you got lucky, you could have all ships in a system to be a pers. If they all hit the 5%. For just 2 ships to be a pers at the same time in the same system, it's 0,25% chance.

Here's a brief example, say you have 5 different pers. You go in a system with 5 average ships. You enter the system and there is 5 ships. Then there is 25%(actually, it is 22,62%, but for the sake of explaining, let's keep it at that.) chance that ONE of the ships will be a pers. And then, you've got to cut that number again to have a specific pers. So, there is a 5%, when you enter such system with that many existing pers, that the one you want will be there and just that one.

The part I'm not sure about is if Nova handles multiple pers with same names as one with increased chances of appearing. That means if you wanted Bob Marley to spawn more often, would making multiple Bob Marley actually be a good idea or would it lead to keep appearing after his death/capture/whatever? Same with those pers who are set to "Hold a grudge". What if you provoked a Bob Marley and then met another Bob Marley, would he hold the grudge the other Bob Marley had against you?

EDIT: corrected numbers thanks to belthazar

This post has been edited by Mumbling Psycho : 24 August 2006 - 09:21 AM

You may be right about it being 95% percent odds a given ship won't be a përs, but I'd like to see data confirming or refuting it. For one thing, how often do përses appear in a s˙st with no düdes, flëts or always-përs, and zero average ships? What about with 1 average ship? Or 128 average ships (so with the random ą50% it will still always be at least 64, which is max)?

Test this out I shall!

Mumbling Psycho, that sounds like the best explanation I've heard so far. One other thing I noticed (though I'm not sure if I did this in EVO's AlwaysPers fields or Nova's pers percentage fields) was that if you have more than one ship set to always appear then you actually don't get them all always appearing.

As to your last paragraph, I've often wondered the same things myself. That's something else which needs to be tested.

@mumbling-psycho, on Aug 23 2006, 11:38 PM, said in Pers appear chance:

You go in a system with 5 average ships. You enter the system and there is 5 ships. Then there is 25% chance that ONE of the ships will be a pers. And then, you've got to cut that number again to have a specific pers.

Having 5 ships with each having a 5% chance of being a pers does not = a 25% chance for 1 to appear.

Otherwise, by that logic, having 20 ships in the system would mean a 100% chance for 1 to be a pers. And that just doesn't compute. If all ships have <100% chance to appear, you can't guarentee that any will appear.

@desprez, on Aug 24 2006, 11:27 AM, said in Pers appear chance:

Having 5 ships with each having a 5% chance of being a pers does not = a 25% chance for 1 to appear.

While he's wrong in saying 25%, he's not that far wrong - given five ships in a system, the chances of exactly one of them being a përs (assuming there's a completely random 5% chance of any one being a përs) is 20.36%. The chances of at least one being a përs is 22.62%

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Otherwise, by that logic, having 20 ships in the system would mean a 100% chance for 1 to be a pers.

Given 20 ships in a system, the chances of exactly one përs is 37.74%, while the chances of at least one përs is 64.15%.

I'm wondering how you can get 22,62%, though. It is because you're factoring in the random +/- 50% ships in the average ship? Did I just forget a variable? Or did I miss something back in high school when we were studying probabilities? :huh:

A bit off-topic but something just caught my eye, since there is a +/- 50% amount of the average ships that are generated, what would be the minimum and maximum amount of AI ships in a system with, say, 5 average ships? 2 or 3? 7 or 8? Without destroying them manually, of course.

@mumbling-psycho, on Aug 25 2006, 12:18 AM, said in Pers appear chance:

I'm wondering how you can get 22,62%, though. It is because you're factoring in the random +/- 50% ships in the average ship?

No, although I possibly should have - which would have complicated matters somewhat. It would involve normal probabilities as well. The 22.62% is based on there being exactly five ships in the system.

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Did I just forget a variable? Or did I miss something back in high school when we were studying probabilities? :huh:

Possibly. It's the probability of there being exactly one përs, plus the probability of there being exactly two, plus the probability of there being exactly three, et cetera, et cetera. In other words, it's one minus the probability of there being exactly none.

This post has been edited by Belthazar : 24 August 2006 - 03:17 PM