Jamming Calculations?

I've been tinkering away trying to find out what sort of equation Nova uses to calculate whether or not a missile gets jammed, and, so far, I've been unable to solve it - here's what I've gotten so far:
(note: all of the below assumes only one jamming type is relevant; I haven't experimented with multiple jamming types affecting a single projectile at all yet.)

Hypotheses I'm almost certain of:
If outfit jamming value (henceforth Jam) or weapon jamming vulnerability (henceforth Vuln) is less than or equal to zero, no jamming occurs.

Hypotheses I'm pretty sure of:
If Jam + Vuln <= 100, no jamming occurs

Hypotheses I'm entirely uncertain of:
If Jam >= 100, Vuln is ignored for calculating the chance of the missile not tracking (unless Vuln is zero or less).

Does anyone have any better knowledge of how the jamming actually works, or anything to contribute to any of the above three lists?

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I think it is a probability more than a sure thing.

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